While many analyzes have been made about whether the bearish movements are over in Bitcoin, crypto money analyst and CEO Charles Edwards wrote from Twitter that the biggest crypto money is going through a period of serious capitulation and that rises should be expected.
"All movements point to capitulation mode"
Edwards, the CEO of the crypto asset management company Capriole, stated in his tweet series called “12 Bitcoin capitulations” that almost all of Bitcoin’s movements point to the capitulation mode.
"The risk-return curve is likely to be positive"
Stating that every sign of capitulation is actually rare movements for the history of Bitcoin, Edwards said, “Each of what has happened is actually very rare events, and this increases the probability that the risk-return curve will be positive.” Addressing the transfer of supply in the first of 12 items, Capriole CEO wrote:
“Last month, transfers in losing Bitcoins were equal to 1.9 percent of the total supply. It is a fact that the market is in a huge decline when this metric exceeds 1.5%.”
"Bitfinex whales are dead"
Referring to the “Bitfinex whales” narrative that has been talked about for years in the crypto money markets, Edwards said, “Bitfinex has always been known as the home of whale traders. Here, the sustained short selling rate for Bitcoin has dropped by 70% in the last 2 months. "We clearly see Bitfinex whales being thrown out," he said. Commenting on the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), the CEO used the following statements:
"CCI is at an all-time low. This index shows consumer sentiment, consumption expectations, and savings. It is currently at an all-time low… Even worse than the 2020 corona collapse… than the record inflation periods of the 1970s and 80s…"
Edwards, who also looked at the statistics of searches for "Bitcoin is dead" on Google around the world, stated that these searches also reached an all-time high in June and said, "This is also important data to understand the sentiment of the market."
"Short-term investor ratio is falling"
“In November 2021, 90 percent of the market consisted of short-term investors,” said Edwards, writing that the current rate of this investor group has dropped to 58%. Edwards also said that the long-term investor ratio has also increased. Edwards, who is also the inventor of the “hash ribbon” indicator, also touched on the data on this subject and said:
"Hash ribbon indicator, the current miner capitulation has been going on for 55 days and the 2-month level is about to be passed… In the entire history of Bitcoin, there are only 3 miner capitulations that exceeded 2 months."
Referring to the stock markets, which are commented to be correlated with Bitcoin, Edwards said, “We are experiencing one of the worst stock market performances under the influence of inflation. We are talking about a period of 8 generations. There is no need to say anything more,” he said.
Evaluating the capitulations of corporate companies, Edwards stated that leveraged transactions are a very good indicator for Bitcoin:
“Leverage is one of the best indicators for measuring the relatively over- and under-valuations in Bitcoin. During this period, many leveraged cryptocurrencies went bankrupt and out of the game.”
Stating that very important capitulation metrics have been seen in the last 2 months, Capriole CEO said, "We can derive long-term opportunities from these capitulations, albeit relatively."